The Deskilling vs Upskilling Debate: The Role of BLS Projections

[Excerpt] The growing shortage of professionally trained workers and the rising skill premiums will tend to cause supply to increase more rapidly than we have projected. But the gap between the projected growth of demand and supply is huge. Just to maintain the balance between the growth of supply and the growth of occupational demand that prevailed in the 1980s, itself a period of shortage, it will be necessary to increase in the stock of college graduates in the year 2000 by 3.7 million or, put another way, to raise the number of college graduates entering the labor forces by 462,000 or 42 percent between 1992 and the year 2000

Stability of Periodic, Traveling-Wave Solutions to the Capillary-Whitham Equation

Recently, the Whitham and capillary-Whitham equations were shown to accurately model the evolution of surface waves on shallow water. In order to gain a deeper understanding of these equations, we compute periodic, traveling-wave solutions to both and study their stability. We present plots of a representative sampling of solutions for a range of wavelengths, wave speeds, wave heights, and surface tension values. Finally, we discuss the role these parameters play in the stability of the solutions

The Worsening Shortage of College-Graduate Workers

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projections of occupational employment growth have consistently underpredicted the growth of skilled occupations. BLS currently projects that professional, technical, and managerial jobs will account for 44.5% of employment growth between 1988 and 2000, while we project they will account for 70% of employment growth. Between March 1988 and March 1991 these occupations, in fact, accounted for 87% of employment growth. The BLS\u27s projections of the supply/demand balance for college graduates have also been off the mark-predicting a surplus for the 1980s when, in fact, a shortage developed, and relative wage ratios for college graduates rose to all-time highs. We project that the supply of college educated workers will grow more slowly during the 1990s and that there will be a continuing escalation of wage premiums for college graduates

Left, Right, Left: Income and Political Dynamics in Transition Economies

The political left turn in Latin America, which lagged its transition to liberalized market economies by a decade or more, challenges conventional economic explanations of voting behavior. While the implications of upward mobility for the political preferences of forward-looking voters have been studied, neither the upward mobility model nor conventional myopic median voter models are well equipped to explain Latin America's political transformation. This paper generalizes the forward-looking voter model to consider a broad range of dynamic processes. When voters have full information on the nature of income dynamics in a transition economy, we show that strong support for redistributive policies will materialize rapidly if income dynamics offer few prospects of upward mobility for key sections of the electorate. In contrast, when voters have imperfect information, our model predicts a slow and politically polarizing shift toward redistributive voter preferences under these same non-concave income dynamics. Simulation using fitted income dynamics for two Latin American economies suggests that the imperfect information model better accounts for the observed shift back to the left in Latin America, and that this generalized, forward-looking voter approach may offer additional insights about political dynamics in other transition economies.income dynamics, redistributive politics, polarization, Bayesian learning, Latin America

Applying Intermediate Microeconomics to Terrorism

The authors show how microeconomic concepts and principles are applicable to the study of terrorism. The utility maximization model provides insights into both terrorist resource allocation choices and government counterterrorism efforts, while basic game theory helps characterize the strategic interdependencies among terrorists and governments.terrorism; rational choice model; income and substitution effects; Slutsky equation; game theory; prisoners’ dilemma; chicken; public goods

Circle Detection Using the Image Ray Transform

Physical analogies are an exciting paradigm for creating techniques for image feature extraction. A transform using an analogy to light rays has been developed for the detection of circular and tubular features. It uses a 2D ray tracing algorithm to follow rays through an image, interacting at a low level, to emphasise higher level features. It has been empirically tested as a pre-processor to aid circle detection with the Hough Transform and has been shown to provide a clear improvement over standard techniques. The transform was also used on natural images and we show its ability to highlight circles even in complex scenes. We also show the flexibility available to the technique through adjustment of parameters

Model-based approaches for predicting gait changes over time

Interest in automated biometrics continues to increase, but has little consideration of time which are especially important in surveillance and scan control. This paper deals with a problem of recognition by gait when time-dependent covariates are added, i.e. when $6$ or $12$ months have passed between recording of the gallery and the probe sets. Moreover, in some cases some extra covariates present as well. We have shown previously how recognition rates fall significantly when data is captured between lengthy time intervals. Under the assumption that it is possible to have some subjects from the probe for training and that similar subjects have similar changes in gait over time, we suggest predictive models of changes in gait due both to time and now to time-invariant covariates. Our extended time-dependent predictive model derives high recognition rates when time-dependent or subject-dependent covariates are added. However it is not able to cope with time-invariant covariates, therefore a new time-invariant predictive model is suggested to accommodate extra covariates. These are combined to achieve a predictive model which takes into consideration all types of covariates. A considerable improvement in recognition capability is demonstrated, showing that changes can be modelled successfully by the new approach